Why the Autumn Climbing Period Turned Lethal in the Himalayan Mountains
Clear skies, gentle breezes and a breathtaking view of majestic summits covered in snow - that is the fall setting that hikers on Mount Everest have come to love.
However that appears to be transforming.
Shifting Climate Conditions
Meteorologists say the monsoon now extends into autumn, which is traditionally the high-altitude travel season.
During this prolonged conclusion of the rainy season, they have recorded at least one occurrence of extreme precipitation almost every year for the past ten years, with mountain weather becoming more hazardous.
Latest Crisis on Everest
Recently, a shock blizzard stranded several hundred of tourists near the east-facing face of Mount Everest for multiple days in bitterly cold temperatures at an elevation of more than 16,000ft.
Almost six hundred trekkers were escorted to security by the end of that week, according to reports.
A single person had died from extreme cold and mountain sickness, but the others were said to be in stable condition.
Similar Events Across the Region
This was on the Tibetan slope but something similar had unfolded on the Nepal slope, where a South Korean climber lost his life on another Himalayan summit.
The international community learned much later because communication lines were affected by heavy downpours and heavy snowfall.
Authorities calculate that landslides and sudden floods in the region have killed approximately 60 people over the past week.
"It is highly atypical for autumn when we anticipate the skies to remain clear," said an experienced mountain guide.
Economic Consequences
Considering autumn represents the favored period, frequent storms like these have "disrupted our mountaineering and climbing business," he continued.
The rainy period in northern India and the Himalayan nation typically lasts from June to mid-September, but not anymore.
"Our data shows that most of the years in the previous decade have had rainy seasons lasting until the second week of autumn, which is certainly a change," explained a senior weather official.
Growing Weather Severity
Even more worrying is the heavy precipitation and snow the tail end of the period produces, like it did recently on early October.
High in the Himalayas, such severe conditions means snowstorms and winter storms, which constitutes a significant risk for trekking, climbing and the travel industry.
Firsthand Accounts
That's what occurred last weekend when the weather shifted quite abruptly - the air currents began roaring, mercury readings dropped sharply and sightlines dropped drastically.
The trail that had comfortably led the trekkers to what should have been a stunning pitstop was now buried in snow and impossible to navigate.
Still, one trekker, who had hiked these mountains more than a twelve times, said he had "never encountered conditions like these" before.
Expert Analysis
One big factor is the higher quantity of moisture in the air because of how the planet has been warming, researchers say.
This has led to heavy precipitation over a brief period of duration, often after a extended dry spell – unlike in the past when monsoon showers were spread uniformly over four months.
A Intensified Monsoon
Weather experts report the monsoons in the region at occasions appear to have become more intense because they are increasingly coming into contact with an additional atmospheric phenomenon, the westerly disturbance.
The phenomenon is a atmospheric depression that originates in the Mediterranean region and travels eastward - it transports cold air that causes precipitation and sometimes snow to northern India, neighboring countries and Nepal.
Global Change Effects
Scientists have also discovered that in a warming world, the growing relationship between western weather systems and seasonal rains is causing another atypical result.
The warmer air is pushing the weather systems to greater altitudes, which indicates these atmospheric conditions are now capable to cross the Himalayas and affect Tibet and other areas that did not see as much rain in the past.
"What's changed is the predictability of weather patterns; we can't assume that situations will occur the identical from season to season," said an seasoned expedition guide.
"That means flexible scheduling, real-time choices, and experienced leadership [in the Himalayas] have become increasingly essential."